Europe’s most recent great drama and its protagonists

Originally published in Greek by Kathimerini, 27 March 2022.

Until not long ago, Europe seemed to be an ensemble of democratic nations that, for the most part, had embraced liberal democracy. These nations displayed a determination to spread the spirit of Western liberal democracy to neighboring regions, including the Arab world, Islamist Turkey, and nationalist Russia. Recent and dramatic developments, however, have altered all that. The democratic experiment in the Arab world largely failed, Turkey regressed to an increasingly authoritarian form of government, and Russia proved to be a brutal dictatorship. At the same time, Britain’s withdrawal weakened the European Union, while the Trump era clearly showed that America cannot be relied upon as a permanent  European ally or be seen as a model for clear-cut liberal democracy. The West became disengaged.

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The bully of Budapest goes to the polls

Originally published as an op-ed in Greek newspaper Kathimerini, 30 January 2022.

2022 is packed with critical elections in many places around the globe, including France (to decide whether Emmanuel Macron will continue to be the resident of the Élysée), Brazil (Jair Bolsonaro is almost certain to suffer a rout), the Philippines (featuring the scions of two autocrats—the son of former dictator Ferdinand Marcos and the daughter of current president Rodrigo Duterte—as main protagonists), and the United States (where the Democrats are expected to suffer losses in the November midterm elections). None of those contests, however, is as important as Hungary’s national elections in early April. The reason for that is that none of the possible outcomes in that contest can be good for democracy or for Europe.

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Quo vadis, Europa?

Δημοσιεύτηκε στην Καθημερινή της Κυριακής, 30 Μαΐου 2021.

Two security officers walk by flags of EU nations prior to an EU summit in Brussels on Tuesday, June 28, 2016. EU heads of state and government meet Tuesday and Wednesday in Brussels for the first time since Britain voted to leave the European Union, throwing British and European politics into disarray. (AP Photo/Virginia Mayo)

Πριν από λίγες ημέρες, στη γραφική Κοΐμπρα της Πορτογαλίας οι υπουργοί Ευρωπαϊκών Υποθέσεων της Ε.Ε. επιδόθηκαν σε ασκήσεις μελλοντολογίας. Σκοπός τους ήταν να προβλέψουν προς τα που πηγαίνουν τα πράγματα στην Ευρώπη και τον κόσμο. Όπως όμως συνηθίζεται σε τέτοιες περιπτώσεις, στο τέλος δημιούργησαν έναν ακόμη γραφειοκρατικό μηχανισμό, το Πανευρωπαϊκό Δίκτυο Προβλέψεων (EU Foresight Network). Προφανώς, η Ευρώπη αλλάζει όπως αλλάζει και ο κόσμος ολόκληρος. Μόνο που οι προβλέψεις για το μέλλον δεν είναι εύκολη υπόθεση, ιδίως για όσους αγνοούν τις δυναμικές διεργασίες που έχουν ξεκινήσει στο παρελθόν και οι οποίες πρόκειται να καθορίσουν τις μελλοντικές εξελίξεις. Να κάποιες από τις κυριότερες διεργασίες που το Δίκτυο θα έπρεπε να έχει υπόψιν.

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Europe’s party politics transformed​

Circa 1990, nearly all major parties in Europe belonged to the liberal type. Fast forward through the decades that followed since to our own day, and this isn’t the case any more. Liberal parties are currently in decline while other party types, such as populist and nativist parties, have emerged strong in several nations across the continent. How did that happen and what are the main consequences of such transformations? This essay and the interactive infographic that accompanies it explain.

The content of this blog has appeared in the form of policy brief published by the European Liberal Forum in May 2021.

stating THE ISSue

For a time, post-war European politics was dominated by the liberal type of party. These broadly liberal parties were who originally envisaged the idea of a united Europe and subsequently carried the torch for the advancement of open society in a progressively integrated Europe under rule of law. Over many decades, Europe’s party systems operated as liberal political cartels in which the major parties competed for power against each other, largely unchallenged by other party types. Fast forward to the present day, and the talk around town is about the decline of the formerly established liberal parties, the proliferation of new populist ones, and, ominously enough, the rise of various other so-called anti-system parties—leading to democratic backsliding and, potentially, the disintegration of the European Union. Which part of this narrative corresponds to empirical reality, and which is just hype and headlines? More to the point: What is the current picture of Europe’s party politics? And what is the outlook for the future at EU level?

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The case about Hungary

As of today, 31 March 2020, Hungary is no longer a democratic country. This raises at least four major questions in search for answers. Let’s give it a try based on previous research I have produced on this topic (you may follow the links provided).

What did happen in Hungary yesterday?

On Monday, 30 March 2020, the Hungarian parliament voted by a two-thirds supermajority to hand over its legislative powers to prime minister Viktor Orbán allowing him to rule by decree without a set time limit. The pretext was taking emergency measures to address the coronavirus crisis; but the real aim, and final result, was the death of democracy in an EU country. For, at bottom, Hungary’s parliamentary democracy is now officially dead. Continue reading “The case about Hungary”

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