As of today, 31 March 2020, Hungary is no longer a democratic country. This raises at least four major questions in search for answers. Let’s give it a try based on previous research I have produced on this topic (you may follow the links provided).
What did happen in Hungary yesterday?
On Monday, 30 March 2020, the Hungarian parliament voted by a two-thirds supermajority to hand over its legislative powers to prime minister Viktor Orbán allowing him to rule by decree without a set time limit. The pretext was taking emergency measures to address the coronavirus crisis; but the real aim, and final result, was the death of democracy in an EU country. For, at bottom, Hungary’s parliamentary democracy is now officially dead.
Under the new regime, no election can be held in the country and the government may suspend certain laws at will. Individuals who publicize facts that the government considers untrue, or could alarm or agitate society, now face long jail sentences. Return to the previous state of parliamentary democratic, albeit illiberal, politics now depends on another two-thirds vote in parliament plus the presidential signature. Did I mention that Hungary’s president, János Áder, is a close personal friend and political ally of Orbán?
How did post-communist Hungary develop politically?
In short, Hungary has followed a political trajectory from fledgling liberal democracy (in which even today’s ruling Fidesz was a liberal party) to populism under Orbán’s successive governments since 2010 to today’s hardly unexpected shift to non-democratic autocracy. The graph below represents Hungary’s political trajectory over the last thirty years, followed by a concise glossary of the terms used (adapted from https://pappaspopulism.com/glossary/).
Liberal democracy. Ideal-typically, a parliamentary pluralist political system based on electoral turnover and the rule of law.
Populism. Synonym of democratic illiberalism. A political system which, although pretty much democratic, hardly follows the principles and precepts of liberal democracy.
Autocracy. A form of government in which a single individual or group of individuals holds nearly unbounded and, to a large extent, arbitrary power.
Why did Hungary turn autocratic?
As I have shown elsewhere, when populists are in power, they have three paths open to them. The first, and most rare, is to attempt a return to liberal democracy; a second path is simply to entrench themselves and become systemic; while a third path leads to outright autocracy. The graphic below simplifies these tensions. It comes from a recent paper under the title “Populists in Power,” which also deals in some detail with the case of Hungary. Viktor Orbán, like Venezuela’s Maduro before him, chose to take the third pathway and lead Hungary to outright autocracy.
How do democracies die?
Hungary’s case is illuminating: Its democracy died the moment that the elected parliament handed over its powers, voluntarily and almost unconditionally, to a political strongman. And the majority of society stood in support of it, applauding the leader.
