How to beat populism: Theory validation

This post is a follow-up to a previous one on the theory of how to beat populism. Here’s the empirical validation of the theoretical points made with reference to the case of Greece. Like the previous post, this one is an extract from my recent essay “The Pushback Against Populism: The Rise and Fall of Greece’s New Illiberalism,” published in the Journal of Democracy 31:2, April 2020. Another post will follow with the lessons other countries may draw from Greece’s rich experience with populism.

We posited in the previous post that unraveling modern populism would require a chain of developments inverting those that brought populists to power in the first place. Following this logic, the line of developments leading to populism’s downfall should begin with a liberal leader who acts within a populist-ruled political system, but in opposition to it. Events in Greece during the period from January 2016 through July 2019 offer perhaps the best illustration that we have of how such a leader’s rise might play out in practice.

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The politics of pandemic prevention in Spain and Greece

All countries will suffer. But countries with inefficient governments will suffer more than others

This blog post has featured in Libertad Digital (Spain), LIFO (Greece), European Pravda (Ukraine), Bloomberg Views (USA), The TOC (Greece), Nius Diario (Spain), iefimerida (Greece), Ta Nea (Greece), The Globe and Mail (Canada), South EU Summit (Italy), Information (Denmark), Capital (Bulgaria)

When the covid-19 pandemic broke out in Europe, no government had any experience of how to face it and each tried to weather the storm in its own ways. Some governments fared better, some less so. By and large, there are three major factors that have determined, and still do, how governments cope with the virus. These are, first, the resoluteness and efficiency of their leadership; second, the capacity of states and public health systems in particular to deal with such an extraordinary health crisis situation; and, third, the cooperation of national publics in following emergency rules. At a more specific level, as shown by an even cursory comparison of the Spanish and Greek experiences with the pandemic, it seems that a well-integrated and liberal government performs significantly better than one which is disunited and, moreover, diluted with populists. Let’s have a closer look at the two cases.

At the time of this writing (5 April 2020), Spain has close to 130,000 confirmed cases of coronavirus victims and about 12,000 deaths. At the same time, Greece has about 1,700 confirmed cases and 68 deaths. So, the question is: Why these two Mediterranean countries, whose people are equally sun-loving, bar-hopping, and intensely social, and which should have drawn the same lessons from Italy’s preceding experience, have had such different fates during the early phase of the coronavirus crisis? The answer is simple, almost mundane: Different governments!

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How to defeat populism – IV

This is the fourth and last in a mini-series of posts about how to beat populism at the polls. The first post emphasized the availability of a liberal leader, the second post stressed the need of establishing the leader’s authority over a party, and the third post was about the requirement of a credible and realistic policy agenda that would benefit the broader middle classes. This post suggests that the liberal leader utilizes a moderate discourse, aims at achieving political compromise, and defends institutional legality. As with the previous posts, the empirical case analyzed is contemporary Greece, and especially the more recent defeat of left populist SYRIZA by the liberal right-of-center party of New Democracy (ND) led by Kyriakos Mitsotakis. It bears repetition, Greece’s lessons are perfectly portable! So, if you’re interested in the forthcoming presidential elections in the US, please take note.

4/4 RHETORIC, CONSENSUS-BUILDING, INSTITUTIONAL LEGALITY

Throughout the opposition years, Mitsotakis was consistent in using a moderate political discourse which, on the one hand, emphasized the need to reinvigorate Greece’s damaged liberal institutions while, on the other hand, worked toward consensus-building and political compromise. To those ends, and in sharp contrast to the populists’ polarizing motto of “either Them or Us,” Mitsotakis offered a vision of national unity in which the government should not work for “the many [hoi polloi] but for all Greeks [holloi].” Above all, he sought to create an electoral majority consisting largely of entrepreneurial middle-class ordinary people to whom he proposed a sensible policy agenda centered on four issues of general concern: economic growth, public security, state functionality, and halting Greece’s human drain that continued unabated for over a decade.

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How to defeat populism – III

This is the third in a mini-series of posts about how to beat populism at the polls. In the first post we emphasized the availability of a liberal leader while the second post we stressed the need of establishing the leader’s authority over a party. This post is about the third requirement for beating populism, namely, a coherent and realistic policy agenda that will serve the interests of the middle classes in society without damaging the liberal institutions. As before, the empirical case study from which we draw theoretical lessons comes from the recent trouncing of Greece’s left populist SYRIZA by the liberal right-of-center party of New Democracy (ND) led by Kyriakos Mitsotakis. Let me however repeat: Greece’s lessons are perfectly portable! So, if you’re interested in the forthcoming presidential elections in the US, please take note.

3/4 THE POLICY AGENDA

Given that populism in power is an illiberal, socially divisive, and politically polarizing project, which also depends heavily on the selective distribution of state-related resources to friends and the penalization of foes, liberalism in opposition should aim at the exact opposite – namely, put forward a political project that would benefit the middle classes, who also constitute the vast majority of the national electorate.

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The nation that failed big, and survived

Originally published in eKathimerini, 30 July 2019

Nations fail for a variety of reasons. These include geographical hindrances, harmful cultural inclinations, downward economic spirals, exclusionary institutions, or, indeed, the lack of institutions. Some especially unlucky nations fail for all those reasons at once. Take Greece over the past decade. Continue reading “The nation that failed big, and survived”

Γιατί έχασε τις εκλογές ο ΣΥΡΙΖΑ;

Δημοσιεύτηκε στην Καθημερινή της Κυριακής, 11 Αυγούστου 2019

Κατά κανόνα, οι λαϊκιστές κερδίζουν δύσκολα την εξουσία αλλά εξίσου δύσκολα την χάνουν. Συνήθως διατηρούνται σε αυτήν για δεύτερη ή και περισσότερες κυβερνητικές θητείες, όπως ήδη συμβαίνει στην Ουγγαρία (το κόμμα του Ορμπάν έχει κερδίσει τρεις συνεχόμενες εκλογές) ή όπως συνέβη στο παρελθόν στην Ιταλία, καθώς και στην χώρα μας από την δεκαετία του ΄80 και μετά. Οι προσεχείς εκλογές του Οκτωβρίου στην Πολωνία μάλλον πρόκειται να επιβεβαιώσουν τον κανόνα, αφού οι δημοσκοπήσεις προβλέπουν νίκη των λαϊκιστών για δεύτερη συνεχόμενη φορά. Η πρόσφατη λοιπόν ήττα του ΣΥΡΙΖΑ στις εκλογές του Ιουλίου μετά από μία μόνο πλήρη κυβερνητική θητεία αποτελεί εξαίρεση του παραπάνω κανόνα. Πώς εξηγείται; Continue reading “Γιατί έχασε τις εκλογές ο ΣΥΡΙΖΑ;”

Μπορεί ο Μητσοτάκης να οδηγήσει τη χώρα σε ομαλότητα;

Δημοσιεύτηκε στην Καθημερινή της Κυριακής, 15 Ιουλίου 2019

Πάνε πάνω από δύο χρόνια που, μέσα στην καρδιά της παρατεταμένης κρίσης η οποία μαστίζει τη χώρα μας, δημοσίευσα ένα βιβλίο με τίτλο «Σε τεντωμένο σκοινί: Εθνικές κρίσεις και πολιτικοί ακροβατισμοί από τον Τρικούπη έως τον Τσίπρα» (εκδόσεις Ικαρος) και κύριο στόχο να αναλύσω εάν και κατά πόσον υπάρχουν οι προϋποθέσεις εξόδου από την κρίση και μετάβασης σε πολιτική και κοινωνική ομαλότητα. Η μέθοδος που ακολούθησα ήταν να μελετήσω τις μεγάλες κρίσεις που δοκίμασε η χώρα κατά το παρελθόν και να τις αντιπαραβάλλω με τη σημερινή.

Continue reading “Μπορεί ο Μητσοτάκης να οδηγήσει τη χώρα σε ομαλότητα;”

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