What path is Trump’s U.S. on?

In early 2019, I worked on a comparative analysis about what happens when a populist leader/party wins state office. It was published in the Journal of Democracy and can also be found here. Perhaps the major finding in that piece was the following:

“Once populists become established in power, what are the paths that a nation might take? The available cases suggest that there are three: 1) Populism might entrench itself and become systemic, inducing weakly liberal parties to shift in a populist direction; 2) populism might turn into outright autocracy; or 3) liberal forces might defeat populism at the polls and return to power” (p74).

The whole logic was condensed simply in the following graph: Continue reading “What path is Trump’s U.S. on?”

Η βαριά σκιά του 2016 στην Ευρώπη

Δημοσιεύτηκε στην Καθημερινή της Κυριακής 26 Ιουλίου 2020

Το 2016 ήταν μοιραία χρονιά, ειδικά για την Ευρώπη. Στο ξεκίνημά της, η Μεγάλη Βρετανία ήταν πλήρες μέλος μιας Ευρωπαϊκής Ένωσης (ΕΕ) που ακόμη διατηρούσε παραδοσιακά ισχυρούς δεσμούς με την Αμερική του Ομπάμα και συνέχιζε διαπραγματεύσεις με την Τουρκία για μελλοντική ένταξη της τελευταίας στους κόλπους της. Εντούτοις, στην διάρκεια εκείνης της χρονιάς, οι Βρετανοί αποφάσισαν να αποχωρήσουν από την Ένωση, ο Ομπάμα αποχώρησε από την αμερικανική προεδρία, ενώ η Τουρκία αποχώρησε από το κλαμπ των δημοκρατικών χωρών. Σήμερα, τέσσερα μόλις χρόνια αργότερα, η Ευρώπη βρίσκεται κάτω από τη βαριά σκιά των γεγονότων που προκάλεσε το δραματικό 2016: Η Βρετανία βρίσκεται επίσημα πλέον εκτός ΕΕ, η κυβέρνηση Τραμπ διέκοψε τη στενή στρατηγική συνεργασία με την Ευρώπη, την οποία ρητά θεωρεί ως «εχθρικό αντίπαλο» της Αμερικής, οι δε σχέσεις ανάμεσα στην ΕΕ και την Τουρκία φαίνεται ότι έχουν διαρραγεί. Continue reading “Η βαριά σκιά του 2016 στην Ευρώπη”

Η αντιπολίτευση που χρειαζόμαστε

Δημοσιεύτηκε στην Καθημερινή της Κυριακής, 28 Ιουνίου 2020

Ο φίλος,  σκεπτόμενος και λογικός άνθρωπος, είχε όρεξη για σοβαρή κουβέντα. Ψηφίζει κόμμα της αντιπολίτευσης και μάλλον δεν συμπαθεί ιδιαίτερα την σημερινή κυβέρνηση. Η ερώτησή του ήταν καίρια: «Φαντάσου», είπε, «ότι αναλαμβάνω την αρχηγία στο κόμμα μου. Τι θα έπρεπε να κάνω για να κερδίσω τις εκλογές;» «Ωραία ερώτηση», του απάντησα, «ας πάρουμε λοιπόν τα πράγματα ένα-ένα, ξεκινώντας από την θεωρία, μετά πάμε στην πράξη και, τέλος, να δούμε ποια θα μπορούσαν να είναι τα πιθανά αποτελέσματα». Η συνομιλία μας εξελίχθηκε κάπως έτσι: Continue reading “Η αντιπολίτευση που χρειαζόμαστε”

Populism vs. nativism: 10 indicators to tell the two apart

These two terms (or, better, concepts) are often confused. They are often lumped together under the generic, and generally abused, “populism” label. But nativism and populism are quite distinct phenomena. They have different causes, different ways of developing in contemporary Europe, and different kinds of influence on the democratic societies in which they grow. Clearly, then, they call for different political and policy responses from politicians, policy-makers, and other relevant stakeholders in society. This post is a simple endeavor to point out those differences. If you want to read more about them, please check my previous work on this topic here, here, and here. I am currently continuing my work on nativism within the H2020 PaCE research program. And, in a not so remote future as I hope, there will be more to say and write in book form about Europe’s strongly nativist nations.

Continue reading “Populism vs. nativism: 10 indicators to tell the two apart”

Πώς μπορεί να ηττηθεί ο Ντόναλντ Τραμπ

συντομη απαντηση: ακριβως οπως ηττηθηκε ο λαΪκισμοσ στην ελλαδα

Δημοσιεύθηκε στην Καθημερινή της Κυριακής, 26 Απριλίου 2020. Το κείμενο βασίστηκε σε αυτό το πρόσφατο άρθρο: “The pushback against populism: The rise and fall of Greece’s new illiberalism”.

Απομένουν περίπου 200 ημέρες μέχρι τις αμερικανικές εκλογές της 3ης Νοεμβρίου και η πλεύση προς αυτές θα γίνει σε αχαρτογράφητα θολά νερά. Ανάμεσα στους αστάθμητους παράγοντες που πρόκειται να καθορίσουν το τελικό αποτέλεσμα θα είναι, ασφαλώς, η εξέλιξη της πανδημίας του κορωνοϊού στην Αμερική και οι επιπτώσεις της στην οικονομία της χώρας. Το δυσκολότερο όμως ερώτημα αυτών των εκλογών είναι άλλο: Με ποιόν τρόπο μπορεί να ηττηθεί ο λαϊκιστής Πρόεδρος της Αμερικής; Continue reading “Πώς μπορεί να ηττηθεί ο Ντόναλντ Τραμπ”

Donald Trump, authentic populist

Today, Early 2020, President Trump is as populist as he was as a presidential candidate in early 2016. And the concept of “populism” is today as badly understood as it was back then. And this older piece NOW seems to me as accurate about u.s. politics as i believed it to be 4 years ago. anD it’s worrisome!

This is an older article that I think it deserves some attention so I’m reposting it here. It was originally written in early 2016 between Super Tuesdays, when Trump was still one of the candidates for the Republican nomination, and became published in openDemocracy under a similar title as above. That was also about the time that everyone began using the term “populism” to explain pretty much everything that happened later in the course of that year (the British referendum, the coup in Turkey, the November presidential elections in the US), let alone much of what would happen ever since. In my piece, I used a concise conceptualization of populism according to which Trump classifies as an authentic populist. Based on that analysis, I concluded the 2016 piece with this prediction: “If Trump wins the next Republican presidential nomination, he is surely going to reshape the face of American politics and society from the most fundamentally liberal in the world to one that will be outright populist.” That was my forecasting from a political scientist’s perspective back in March 2016. The rest is history.

He seems to have come out of nowhere; he is immoderate and choleric, uses a rhetoric full of rage and a message that is mystifying, almost unfathomable; his policy positions do not square with those of the party he claims to represent; and, at the moment, he dominates public discourse and the political process. He is of course, Donald Trump, but what type of politician is he? And why the answer to this question matters? Continue reading “Donald Trump, authentic populist”

Greece 2010-2020: From one big crisis to another, from utter failure to unexpected success

When in crisis, countries may undergo dramatic changes. Look at today’s Greece!

In 2014, while Greece was entangled in her previous major crisis since 2010, I wrote a book that was published under the title Populism and Crisis Politics in Greece (also translated into Greek). Throughout the ultimate pages, the obvious question was naturally posed:

How can Greece exit from its present quandary, reinvigorate the state, and re-enter a virtuous cycle of political activity and economic growth? (p. 134)

My reply at the time consisted of four possible solutions: (1) “the ‘big bang’ solution; (2) the emergence of a new reformist political class; (3) charismatic leadership; and (4) sticking to Europe as a geographical and political determinant [of national politics].”

Continue reading “Greece 2010-2020: From one big crisis to another, from utter failure to unexpected success”

The politics of pandemic prevention in Spain and Greece

All countries will suffer. But countries with inefficient governments will suffer more than others

This blog post has featured in Libertad Digital (Spain), LIFO (Greece), European Pravda (Ukraine), Bloomberg Views (USA), The TOC (Greece), Nius Diario (Spain), iefimerida (Greece), Ta Nea (Greece), The Globe and Mail (Canada), South EU Summit (Italy), Information (Denmark), Capital (Bulgaria)

When the covid-19 pandemic broke out in Europe, no government had any experience of how to face it and each tried to weather the storm in its own ways. Some governments fared better, some less so. By and large, there are three major factors that have determined, and still do, how governments cope with the virus. These are, first, the resoluteness and efficiency of their leadership; second, the capacity of states and public health systems in particular to deal with such an extraordinary health crisis situation; and, third, the cooperation of national publics in following emergency rules. At a more specific level, as shown by an even cursory comparison of the Spanish and Greek experiences with the pandemic, it seems that a well-integrated and liberal government performs significantly better than one which is disunited and, moreover, diluted with populists. Let’s have a closer look at the two cases.

At the time of this writing (5 April 2020), Spain has close to 130,000 confirmed cases of coronavirus victims and about 12,000 deaths. At the same time, Greece has about 1,700 confirmed cases and 68 deaths. So, the question is: Why these two Mediterranean countries, whose people are equally sun-loving, bar-hopping, and intensely social, and which should have drawn the same lessons from Italy’s preceding experience, have had such different fates during the early phase of the coronavirus crisis? The answer is simple, almost mundane: Different governments!

Continue reading “The politics of pandemic prevention in Spain and Greece”

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